Resale Flat Prices 04 Q O Q 3q2025 Smallest Quarterly Growth 2q2020 Hdb Flash Estimates

According to flash estimates published on October 1, HDB resale flat prices saw a quarterly increase of 0.4% in 3Q2025. This marks the 22nd consecutive quarter of price growth since 2Q2020, although the rate of increase continues to slow down. This figure in 3Q2025 represents the fourth consecutive quarter of slower growth, following the 0.9% and 1.6% increases in the previous two quarters of 2025. This is also the smallest quarterly growth since 2Q2020, according to HDB.

For the first nine months of the year, resale flat prices have grown by 2.9%, a decrease from the 6.9% growth recorded in the same period last year. It is also lower than the 3.8% growth seen in the first nine months of 2023. In terms of volume, there were 7,157 resale flat transactions in 3Q2025. While this is slightly higher than the previous quarter, it represents a 10.9% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. Senior Director of Data Analytics at Huttons Asia, Lee Sze Teck, believes that this slower activity can be attributed to the Build-To-Order (BTO) and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercises held in July.

HDB launched a total of 10,209 flats for sale during the exercises, including flats with shorter waiting times (SWT). “These SWT flats and completed SBF flats may have diverted demand away from the resale market,” explains Lee. Eugene Lim, Key Executive Officer at ERA Singapore, shares the same view and adds that the July exercises included flats in highly sought-after locations such as Toa Payoh and Bukit Merah. He also notes that a lower supply of flats reaching their minimum occupation period could have contributed to the lower resale volume.

Christine Sun, Chief Researcher and Strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, suggests that some buyers may have chosen to wait for the October BTO sales exercise. She believes that the inaugural launch of new flats in Mount Pleasant and Greater Southern Waterfront, where demand is expected to be high, could have influenced their decision.

In terms of price movements, average resale prices either declined or grew at a slower pace for most flat types. Four-room and five-room flats saw a quarterly increase of 0.3% and 0.7% in 3Q2025, compared to 1.4% and 1.2% in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, three-room and executive/multi-gen flats saw a decline of 0.9% and 1.6% respectively, reversing the gains seen in 2Q2025.

Head of Research and Data Analytics at Singapore Realtors Inc, Mohan Sandrasegeran, points out a divergence in price movements between newer and older flats. “Flats with leases starting from 2013 continued to drive the overall resale market prices, registering a 1.5% increase in 3Q2025,” he says. On the other hand, average resale prices for flats built in 1970 or earlier saw a significant decline of 5.7% quarter-on-quarter, highlighting the impact of lease decay and financing challenges on buyer demand.

Lim notes that newer flats accounted for the majority of million-dollar transactions in the resale market, with around 480 deals transacted at or above $1 million. In 3Q2025, 246 of these transactions involved flats less than 15 years old, and 11 of them crossed the $1.5 million mark. These transactions were primarily concentrated in mature and centrally located estates such as Toa Payoh, Bukit Merah, Kallang-Whampoa, Clementi, and Queenstown.

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Looking ahead, Sun predicts that resale flat prices will remain stable or slightly decline in the fourth quarter. She notes that demand typically decreases during this period due to the year-end holidays. Lim highlights that the October BTO exercise will offer over 9,000 flats for sale, making it the largest launch of the year. He believes that the inclusion of projects in emerging areas such as Mount Pleasant and the Berlayar estate in Bukit Merah could cause some buyers to postpone their purchases until the ballot results are released. ERA maintains its full-year forecast of 3% to 6% resale price growth for 2025, with a projected transaction volume of 26,000 to 27,000 units.